Falcons @ Packers · Week 3

2026 · Week 3 · Sep 25, 00:15 UTC · Lambeau Field

Falcons

8–9 · 9–8 ATS · 8–9 O/U('25)

Packers

9–8–1 · 6–12 ATS · 10–8 O/U('25)

spread · GB: -7.5
total: 46.5
fair ml: 75¢ home
books: 5
open: -7.5 / 46.5

odds as of Sep 1, 09:43 UTC · refreshes with each capture, not live

Odds across the books

book	Atlanta Falcons	Green Bay Packers	updated
Bet Right	+285	-370	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Betr	+280	-370	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Caesars	+260	-390	Sep 1, 09:41 UTC
DraftKings	+295	-375	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC

Consensus edge

de-vigged median across the books — no model involved

moneyline

4 books · vig removed

Fair: Packers 75¢ / Falcons 25¢ — no book beats fair right now.

fairworsebetter

Model says

proreleased to Pro 2h after the house trades (amendment A3, from Week 1); unlocks here at kickoff−15min

Checking the model…

Line movement

latestSep 1 · -7.3

Median across books per capture, ~12-hourly book snapshots + 30-min line captures. Not live.

Player props

consensus columns free · model columns above in Model says

Props are not posted yet. Books open player markets a few days before kickoff — they appear here with the next odds capture.

Matchup

EPA form free · PFF unit grades Pro

ATLseason form · league percentileGB

31
off EPA/play
94
56
def EPA/play
31
53
success rate
94
12
pass over expected
41
50
explosive pass rate
91
59
explosive rush rate
88
78
sacks allowed/dropback
66

Raw numbers, last 5 vs season

form	last 5		season
	ATL	GB	ATL	GB
off EPA/play	-.044	.017	-.027	.118
def EPA/play	-.003	.139	-.009	.025
success rate	.404	.447	.436	.474
pass over expected	-9.6	-4.0	-6.3	-3.6
explosive pass rate	.042	.072	.045	.062
explosive rush rate	.047	.071	.051	.058
sacks allowed/dropback	.039

PFF unit grades (pass block, pass rush, coverage, run defense…) are Pro. Unlock →

Weather

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo covers 16 days out. It appears here automatically once the game is in range.

Missing players

ATL

Michael Penix · QB (Knee - ACL)70 rush yds; 1982 pass ydsmed impactQuestionable
Beaux Collins · WR (Undisclosed)2 rec, 25 ydslow impactIR
JD Bertrand · LB (Undisclosed)IR
Trey Sermon · RB (Undisclosed)IR

Polymarket

No open Polymarket markets for this game in the latest capture. Game markets usually post in game week.

Sharp wallets in this game

pro

0 graded-wallet positions · 0 wallets currently holding this game.

Who, which side, size, and whether the close says they're trustworthy — that's Pro. Unlock →

Similar past games

106 past games within ±1 spread and ±1.5 total, same roof, division games.

favourite ats: 47–57–2(45%)
over rate: 48%
avg margin: 6.2
avg total: 47.8

Show the 20 most recent matches

game	spread	total line	result	scored	cover	o/u
NYG @ NE 2025	+7	46.5	+18	48	fav	over
LV @ TB 2024	+7	47	+15	41	fav	under
SF @ BUF 2024	+6.5	45	+25	45

Head to head

Series tied 8–816 meetings since 1999

2023-09-17GB @ ATL24-25ATL won
2020-10-05ATL @ GB16-30GB won
2018-12-09ATL @ GB20-34GB won
2017-09-17GB @ ATL23-34ATL won
2017-01-22GB @ ATL21-44ATL won
2016-10-30GB @ ATL32-33ATL won
2014-12-08ATL @ GB37-43GB won
2013-12-08ATL @ GB21-22GB won

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