2026 · Week 2 · · Gillette Stadium
Steelers10–8 · 9–8 ATS · 10–8 O/U('25)
Patriots17–4 · 14–7 ATS · 12–9 O/U('25)
- spread · NE
- -4.5
- total
- 43.5
- fair ml
- 68¢ home
- books
- 5
- open
- -4.5 / 43.5
odds as of · polymarket · refreshes with each capture, not live
01
Odds across the books
| book | New England Patriots | Pittsburgh Steelers | updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Right | -244 | +195 | |
| Betr | -250 | +195 | |
| Caesars | -270 | +215 | |
| DraftKings | -218 | +180 |
02
Consensus edge
de-vigged median across the books — no model involvedmoneyline
4 books · vig removed
Fair: Patriots 68¢ / Steelers 32¢ — best price: Steelers at williamhill_us +1.6% above fair.
fairworse
03
Model says
proreleased to Pro 2h after the house trades (amendment A3, from Week 1); unlocks here at kickoff−15minChecking the model…
04
Line movement
05
Player props
consensus columns free · model columns above in Model saysProps are not posted yet. Books open player markets a few days before kickoff — they appear here with the next odds capture.
06
Matchup
EPA form free · PFF unit grades Pro07
Weather
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo covers 16 days out. It appears here automatically once the game is in range.
08
Missing players
PIT
- Michael Pittman · WR (Leg)80 rec, 784 ydshigh impactQuestionable
- Ben Skowronek · WR (Concussion)4 rec, 69 ydslow impactQuestionable
- Logan Lee · DL (Undisclosed)IR
- DeShon Elliott · DB (Undisclosed)IR
09
Polymarket
10
Sharp wallets in this game
pro11
Similar past games
138 past games within ±1 spread and ±1.5 total, same roof, division games.
- favourite ats
- 74–64(54%)
- over rate
- 50%
- avg margin
- 6.3
- avg total
- 44.3
Show the 20 most recent matches
| game | spread | total line | result | scored | cover | o/u |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI @ TB 2025 | +4.5 | 44.5 | +3 | 37 | dog | under |
| NYJ @ CIN 2025 | +5.5 | 43.5 | -1 | 77 | dog | over |
| NO @ CHI 2025 | +4.5 | 43.5 | +12 | 40 | fav |
12
Head to head
NE leads 14–519 meetings since 1999
- 2025-09-21PIT @ NE21-14PIT won
- 2023-12-07NE @ PIT21-18NE won
- 2022-09-18NE @ PIT17-14NE won
- 2019-09-08PIT @ NE3-33NE won
- 2018-12-16NE @ PIT10-17PIT won
- 2017-12-17NE @ PIT27-24NE won
- 2017-01-22PIT @ NE17-36NE won
- 2016-10-23NE @ PIT27-16NE won