Colts @ Chiefs · Week 2

2026 · Week 2 · Sep 21, 00:20 UTC · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Colts

8–9 · 9–8 ATS · 9–8 O/U('25)

Chiefs

6–11 · 6–11 ATS · 4–13 O/U('25)

spread · KC: -7
total: 47.5
fair ml: 73¢ home
books: 5
open → now: -6.5 → -7

line moved 0.5 toward KCon the key number 7

odds as of Sep 1, 09:43 UTC · refreshes with each capture, not live

Odds across the books

book	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	updated
Bet Right	+255	-323	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Betr	+255	-333	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Caesars	+250	-330	Sep 1, 09:41 UTC
DraftKings	+260	-325	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC

Consensus edge

de-vigged median across the books — no model involved

moneyline

4 books · vig removed

Fair: Chiefs 73¢ / Colts 27¢ — no book beats fair right now.

fairworsebetter

Model says

proreleased to Pro 2h after the house trades (amendment A3, from Week 1); unlocks here at kickoff−15min

Checking the model…

Line movement

latestSep 1 · -6.8

Median across books per capture, ~12-hourly book snapshots + 30-min line captures. Not live.

Player props

consensus columns free · model columns above in Model says

Props are not posted yet. Books open player markets a few days before kickoff — they appear here with the next odds capture.

Matchup

EPA form free · PFF unit grades Pro

INDseason form · league percentileKC

81
off EPA/play
53
50
def EPA/play
62
75
success rate
53
72
pass over expected
97
38
explosive pass rate
66
53
explosive rush rate
28
81
sacks allowed/dropback
38

Raw numbers, last 5 vs season

form	last 5		season
	IND	KC	IND	KC
off EPA/play	-.120	-.276	.074	.021
def EPA/play	.088	-.094	.000	-.040
success rate	.391	.335	.460	.439
pass over expected	-6.0	-1.8	-.644	3.9
explosive pass rate	.026	.032	.043	.049
explosive rush rate	.013	.023	.048	.042
sacks allowed/dropback	.040

PFF unit grades (pass block, pass rush, coverage, run defense…) are Pro. Unlock →

Weather

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo covers 16 days out. It appears here automatically once the game is in range.

Missing players

IND

Tyler Warren · TE (Groin)76 rec, 817 yds; 8 rush ydshigh impactQuestionable
Alec Pierce · WR (Ankle)47 rec, 1003 ydshigh impactQuestionable
Josh Downs · WR (Undisclosed)58 rec, 566 ydshigh impactQuestionable
Will Mallory · TE (Thumb)1 rec, 16 yds

Polymarket

No open Polymarket markets for this game in the latest capture. Game markets usually post in game week.

Sharp wallets in this game

pro

0 graded-wallet positions · 0 wallets currently holding this game.

Who, which side, size, and whether the close says they're trustworthy — that's Pro. Unlock →

Similar past games

101 past games within ±1 spread and ±1.5 total, same roof, division games.

favourite ats: 44–52–5(46%)
over rate: 50%
avg margin: 5.9
avg total: 49.5

Show the 20 most recent matches

game	spread	total line	result	scored	cover	o/u
NYG @ NE 2025	+7	46.5	+18	48	fav	over
CAR @ SF 2025	+7.5	48.5	+11	29	fav	under
TB @ BUF 2025	+6	46.5	+12	76

Head to head

IND leads 12–517 meetings since 1999

2025-11-23IND @ KC20-23KC won
2022-09-25KC @ IND17-20IND won
2019-10-06IND @ KC19-13IND won
2019-01-12IND @ KC13-31KC won
2016-10-30KC @ IND30-14KC won
2014-01-04KC @ IND44-45IND won
2013-12-22IND @ KC23-7IND won
2012-12-23IND @ KC20-13IND won

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