2026 · Week 2 · · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Panthers8–10 · 11–7 ATS · 8–10 O/U('25)
Falcons8–9 · 9–8 ATS · 8–9 O/U('25)
- spread · ATL
- -1.5
- total
- 43
- fair ml
- 53¢ home
- books
- 7
- open
- -1.5 / 43.5
odds as of · polymarket · refreshes with each capture, not live
01
Odds across the books
| book | Atlanta Falcons | Carolina Panthers | updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Right | -125 | +104 | |
| Betr | -125 | +100 | |
| Betsson | -135 | -102 | |
| Caesars | -130 | +102 | |
| DraftKings | -122 | +102 | |
| Nordic Bet | -135 | -102 |
02
Consensus edge
de-vigged median across the books — no model involvedmoneyline
6 books · vig removed
Fair: Falcons 53¢ / .
03
Model says
proreleased to Pro 2h after the house trades (amendment A3, from Week 1); unlocks here at kickoff−15minChecking the model…
04
Line movement
05
Player props
consensus columns free · model columns above in Model saysProps are not posted yet. Books open player markets a few days before kickoff — they appear here with the next odds capture.
06
Matchup
EPA form free · PFF unit grades Pro07
Weather
Indoors — Mercedes-Benz Stadium (closed). Weather is not a factor.
08
Missing players
CAR
- Chuba Hubbard · RB (Hamstring)32 rec, 236 yds; 557 rush ydshigh impactQuestionable
- Xavier Legette · WR (Lower Body)36 rec, 371 ydsmed impactQuestionable
- Trevor Etienne · RB (Ankle)3 rec, 13 yds; 98 rush ydslow impactIR
- Bam Martin-Scott · LB (Hamstring)
09
Polymarket
10
Sharp wallets in this game
pro11
Similar past games
21 past games within ±1 spread and ±1.5 total, same roof, division games.
small sample — read as anecdote, not signal
- favourite ats
- 7–14
- over rate
- 48%
- avg margin
- 0.6
- avg total
- 39.1
Show the 20 most recent matches
| game | spread | total line | result | scored | cover | o/u |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL @ NO 2025 | +1.5 | 41.5 | -14 | 34 | dog | under |
| TB @ ATL 2024 | +2.5 | 44 | +6 | 66 | fav | over |
| NO @ ATL 2024 | +2.5 | 41.5 | +2 | 50 | dog |
12
Head to head
ATL leads 33–2154 meetings since 1999
- 2025-11-16CAR @ ATL30-27CAR won
- 2025-09-21ATL @ CAR0-30CAR won
- 2025-01-05CAR @ ATL44-38CAR won
- 2024-10-13ATL @ CAR38-20ATL won
- 2023-12-17ATL @ CAR7-9CAR won
- 2023-09-10CAR @ ATL10-24ATL won
- 2022-11-10ATL @ CAR15-25CAR won
- 2022-10-30CAR @ ATL34-37ATL won