Packers @ Vikings · Week 1

2026 · Week 1 · Sep 13, 20:25 UTC · U.S. Bank Stadium

Packers

9–8–1 · 6–12 ATS · 10–8 O/U('25)

Vikings

9–8 · 9–8 ATS · 8–9 O/U('25)

spread · MIN: -1.5
total: 45.5
fair ml: 52¢ home
books: 59
open: -1.5 / 45.5

odds as of Sep 1, 09:43 UTC · polymarket Sep 1, 15:00 UTC · refreshes with each capture, not live

Odds across the books

book	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	updated
Pinnaclesharp ref	+106	-119	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Bally Bet	-107	-114	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Bet Right	-102	-120	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
BetAnything	+105	-125	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Betclic (FR)	-105	-128	Sep 1, 09:41 UTC
Betfair	+106	-116	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Betfair	+106	-116	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Betfair	+106	-116	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
BetMGM	+100	-120	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Unibet (SE)	-104	-110	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC

Model says

proreleased to Pro 2h after the house trades (amendment A3, from Week 1); unlocks here at kickoff−15min

Checking the model…

Line movement

latestSep 1 · -1.5

Median across books per capture, ~12-hourly book snapshots + 30-min line captures. Not live.

Player props

consensus columns free · model columns above in Model says

player	line	over	under	books
Jordan Love	1.5	+108	-135	4
Kyler Murray	1.5	+124	-152	4

Matchup

EPA form free · PFF unit grades Pro

GBseason form · league percentileMIN

94
off EPA/play
16
31
def EPA/play
91
94
success rate
28
41
pass over expected
59
91
explosive pass rate
16
88
explosive rush rate
75
66
sacks allowed/dropback
0

Raw numbers, last 5 vs season

form	last 5		season
	GB	MIN	GB	MIN
off EPA/play	.017	.032	.118	-.135
def EPA/play	.139	-.298	.025	-.113
success rate	.447	.454	.474	.420
pass over expected	-4.0	-1.2	-3.6	-1.4
explosive pass rate	.072	.036	.062	.040
explosive rush rate	.071	.057	.058	.056
sacks allowed/dropback	.090

PFF unit grades (pass block, pass rush, coverage, run defense…) are Pro. Unlock →

Weather

Indoors — U.S. Bank Stadium (dome). Weather is not a factor.

Missing players

Tucker Kraft · TE (Knee - ACL)32 rec, 489 yds; 3 rush ydshigh impactQuestionable
Luke Musgrave · TE (Undisclosed)25 rec, 261 ydsmed impactPUP
Savion Williams · WR (Undisclosed)10 rec, 78 yds; 37 rush ydslow impactIR
Collin Oliver · DE (Undisclosed)

Polymarket

Packers vs. Vikings

bid: 47¢
ask: 48¢
24h vol: $54

▼ +0.5% today

Spread: Packers (-1.5)

bid: 43¢
ask: 45¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Packers (-2.5)

bid: 39¢
ask: 44¢
24h vol: —

▼ +1.0% today

Spread: Packers (-3.5)

bid: 34¢
ask: 35¢
24h vol: —

▼ +1.0% today

Spread: Packers (-4.5)

bid: 28¢
ask: 36¢
24h vol: —

▲ +1.0% today

Packers vs. Vikings: O/U 41.5

bid: 57¢
ask: 68¢
24h vol: —

▲ +2.0% today

where the real money sits

Bid-side order-book liquidity per outcome (top 5 levels). On-chain and verifiable — not a self-reported bets split.

Under$40,825
Vikings$35,647
Packers$33,845
Over$30,673

order book

Over

bids

48¢$787

47¢$997

46¢$690

44¢$167

38¢$193

asks

51¢$193

52¢$145

53¢$795

54¢$1,015

Sharp wallets in this game

pro

0 graded-wallet positions · 0 wallets currently holding this game.

Who, which side, size, and whether the close says they're trustworthy — that's Pro. Unlock →

Similar past games

189 past games within ±1 spread and ±1.5 total.

favourite ats: 95–93–1(51%)
over rate: 48%
avg margin: 1.0
avg total: 45.6

Show the 20 most recent matches

game	spread	total line	result	scored	cover	o/u
LA @ SEA 2025	+2.5	45.5	+4	58	fav	over
BUF @ DEN 2025	+1.5	45.5	+3	63	fav	over
GB @ CHI 2025	+1.5	45.5	+6	38

Head to head

GB leads 31–23 (2 ties)56 meetings since 1999

2026-01-04GB @ MIN3-16MIN won
2025-11-23MIN @ GB6-23GB won
2024-12-29GB @ MIN25-27MIN won
2024-09-29MIN @ GB31-29MIN won
2023-12-31GB @ MIN33-10GB won
2023-10-29MIN @ GB24-10MIN won
2023-01-01MIN @ GB17-41GB won
2022-09-11GB @ MIN7-23MIN won

← All games

Consensus edge

de-vigged median across the books — no model involved

moneyline

50 books · vig removed

Fair: Vikings 52¢ / Packers 48¢ — no book beats fair right now.

fairworsebetter

spread · -1.5

21 books · vig removed

Fair: Vikings 49¢ / Packers 51¢ — no book beats fair right now.

fairworsebetter

total · 45.5

30 books · vig removed

Fair: Over 50¢ / Under 50¢ — no book beats fair right now.

fairworsebetter

Thomas Yassmin · TE (Undisclosed)IR

Marlon Jones · CB (Undisclosed)IR

Trey Dean · DB (Undisclosed)IR

Johnathan Baldwin · DB (Knee)IR

Dani Dennis-Sutton · DE (Illness)Questionable

RJ Maryland · TE (Hamstring)Questionable

Javon Bullard · DB (Undisclosed)Questionable

McCallan Castles · TE (Undisclosed)Questionable

Carrington Valentine · DB (Leg)Questionable

Warren Brinson · DL (Calf)Questionable

Jordon Riley · DL (Achilles)PUP

Micah Parsons · LB (Knee - ACL)PUP

Josh Jacobs · RB (Groin)NA

MIN

J.J. McCarthy · QB (Undisclosed)181 rush yds; 1632 pass ydsmed impactQuestionable
Tyler Batty · DL (Knee - ACL)IR
Taki Taimani · DL (Undisclosed)IR
Jermar Jefferson · RB (Undisclosed)IR
Dontae Fleming · WR (Undisclosed)IR
Michael Jurgens · OL (Undisclosed)IR
Jamal Adams · SS (Knee)IR
Tyreek Chappell · CB (Undisclosed)IR
Jacob Roberts · LB (Undisclosed)IR
Jacob Thomas · DB (Ankle)Questionable
Bryson Nesbit · TE (Undisclosed)Questionable
Dwight McGlothern · DB (Undisclosed)Questionable
Jakobe Thomas · DB (Back)Questionable
Caleb Tiernan · OT (Ankle)Questionable
Jeshaun Jones · WR (Suspension)Sus

GBseason form · league percentileMIN

94
off EPA/play
16
31
def EPA/play
91
94
success rate
28
41
pass over expected
59
91
explosive pass rate
16
88
explosive rush rate
75
66
sacks allowed/dropback
0

Raw numbers, last 5 vs season

form	last 5		season
	GB	MIN	GB	MIN
off EPA/play	.017	.032	.118	-.135
def EPA/play	.139	-.298	.025	-.113
success rate	.447	.454	.474	.420
pass over expected	-4.0	-1.2	-3.6	-1.4
explosive pass rate	.072	.036	.062	.040
explosive rush rate	.071	.057	.058	.056
sacks allowed/dropback	.090

PFF unit grades (pass block, pass rush, coverage, run defense…) are Pro. Unlock →

0 graded-wallet positions · 0 wallets currently holding this game.

Who, which side, size, and whether the close says they're trustworthy — that's Pro. Unlock →

latestSep 1 · -1.5

Median across books per capture, ~12-hourly book snapshots + 30-min line captures. Not live.

Packers vs. Vikings

bid: 47¢
ask: 48¢
24h vol: $54

▼ +0.5% today

Spread: Packers (-1.5)

bid: 43¢
ask: 45¢
24h vol: —

Spread: Packers (-2.5)

bid: 39¢
ask: 44¢
24h vol: —

▼ +1.0% today

Spread: Packers (-3.5)

bid: 34¢
ask: 35¢
24h vol: —

▼ +1.0% today

Spread: Packers (-4.5)

bid: 28¢
ask: 36¢
24h vol: —

▲ +1.0% today

Packers vs. Vikings: O/U 41.5

bid: 57¢
ask: 68¢
24h vol: —

▲ +2.0% today

where the real money sits

Bid-side order-book liquidity per outcome (top 5 levels). On-chain and verifiable — not a self-reported bets split.

Under$40,825
Vikings$35,647
Packers$33,845
Over$30,673

order book

Over

bids

48¢$787

47¢$997

46¢$690

44¢$167

38¢$193

asks

51¢$193

52¢$145

53¢$795

54¢$1,015

Under

bids

49¢$186

48¢$134

47¢$705

46¢$865

45¢$844

asks

52¢$853

53¢$1,125

54¢$810

56¢$213

62¢$315