2026 · Week 1 · · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Broncos15–4 · 9–10 ATS · 8–11 O/U('25)
Chiefs6–11 · 6–11 ATS · 4–13 O/U('25)
- spread · KC
- -2.5
- total
- 43
- fair ml
- 57¢ home
- books
- 58
- open → now
- -3 → -2.5
line moved 0.5 toward DEN
odds as of · refreshes with each capture, not live
01
Odds across the books
| book | Denver Broncos | Kansas City Chiefs | updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnaclesharp ref | +129 | -146 | |
| Bally Bet | +114 | -137 | |
| Bet Right | +114 | -141 | |
| BetAnything | +125 | -145 | |
| Betclic (FR) | +115 | -154 | |
| Betfair | +104 | -161 | |
| Betfair | +104 | -161 | |
| Betfair | +104 | -161 | |
| Bovada | +130 | -150 | |
| Marathon Bet | +101 | -128 |
03
Model says
proreleased to Pro 2h after the house trades (amendment A3, from Week 1); unlocks here at kickoff−15minChecking the model…
04
Line movement
05
Player props
consensus columns free · model columns above in Model says| player | line | over | under | books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 1.5 | +185 | -220 | 4 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 1.5 | +116 | -139 | 3 |
06
Matchup
EPA form free · PFF unit grades Pro07
Weather
- temperature
- 34°C (feels 35°C)
- wind
- 6 km/h, gusts 23 · 138°
- precipitation
- 0 mm
- humidity
- 29%
- cloud cover
- 67%
source forecast
08
Missing players
DEN
- Frank Crum · OT (Undisclosed)1 rec, 7 ydshigh impactIR
- Marvin Mims · WR (Foot)49 rec, 477 yds; 78 rush ydshigh impactQuestionable
- Levelle Bailey · LB (Leg)IR
- Drew Sanders · LB (Undisclosed)IR
- Caleb Lohner
09
Polymarket
10
Sharp wallets in this game
pro11
Similar past games
112 past games within ±1 spread and ±1.5 total, same roof, division games.
- favourite ats
- 43–64–5(40%)
- over rate
- 45%
- avg margin
- 1.0
- avg total
- 43.0
Show the 20 most recent matches
| game | spread | total line | result | scored | cover | o/u |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR @ TB 2025 | +3 | 43.5 | +2 | 30 | dog | under |
| LA @ SEA 2025 | +1.5 | 42.5 | +1 | 75 | dog | over |
| NYJ @ MIA 2025 | +2.5 | 44.5 | +6 | 48 | fav |
12
Head to head
KC leads 30–2454 meetings since 1999
- 2025-12-25DEN @ KC20-13DEN won
- 2025-11-16KC @ DEN19-22DEN won
- 2025-01-05KC @ DEN0-38DEN won
- 2024-11-10DEN @ KC14-16KC won
- 2023-10-29KC @ DEN9-24DEN won
- 2023-10-12DEN @ KC8-19KC won
- 2023-01-01DEN @ KC24-27KC won
- 2022-12-11KC @ DEN34-28KC won