Browns @ Jaguars · Week 1

2026 · Week 1 · Sep 13, 17:00 UTC · EverBank Stadium

Browns

5–12 · 8–9 ATS · 8–9 O/U('25)

Jaguars

13–5 · 12–6 ATS · 10–8 O/U('25)

spread · JAX: -8
total: 40.5
fair ml: 76¢ home
books: 59
open → now: -7.5 → -8

line moved 0.5 toward JAX

odds as of Sep 1, 09:43 UTC · polymarket Sep 1, 15:00 UTC · refreshes with each capture, not live

Odds across the books

book	Cleveland Browns	Jacksonville Jaguars	updated
Pinnaclesharp ref	+313	-386	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Bally Bet	+295	-385	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Bet Right	+300	-400	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
BetAnything	+290	-360	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Betfair	+330	-370	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Betfair	+330	-370	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Betfair	+330	-370	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
PointsBet (AU)	+250	-323	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
ReBet	+330	-450	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Unibet (UK)	+330	-455	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC

Model says

proreleased to Pro 2h after the house trades (amendment A3, from Week 1); unlocks here at kickoff−15min

Checking the model…

Line movement

latestSep 1 · -7.5

Median across books per capture, ~12-hourly book snapshots + 30-min line captures. Not live.

Player props

consensus columns free · model columns above in Model says

player	line	over	under	books
Deshaun Watson	0.5	-167	+142	5
Trevor Lawrence	1.5	-104	-120	4

Matchup

EPA form free · PFF unit grades Pro

CLEseason form · league percentileJAX

6
off EPA/play
62
81
def EPA/play
88
0
success rate
62
34
pass over expected
88
9
explosive pass rate
72
19
explosive rush rate
56
28
sacks allowed/dropback
59

Raw numbers, last 5 vs season

form	last 5		season
	CLE	JAX	CLE	JAX
off EPA/play	-.196	.133	-.196	.033
def EPA/play	-.059	-.100	-.092	-.097
success rate	.364	.467	.340	.448
pass over expected	-.261	6.3	-3.9	1.8
explosive pass rate	.041	.073	.034	.053
explosive rush rate	.044	.068	.040	.050
sacks allowed/dropback	.103

PFF unit grades (pass block, pass rush, coverage, run defense…) are Pro. Unlock →

Weather

temperature: 35°C (feels 37°C)
wind: 19 km/h, gusts 21 · 81°
precipitation: 0 mm
humidity: 44%
cloud cover: 69%

source forecast

Missing players

CLE

Isaiah Bond · WR (Concussion)18 rec, 338 yds; 29 rush ydsmed impactQuestionable
Dillon Gabriel · QB (Back)86 rush yds; 937 pass ydsmed impactIR
Jamari Thrash · WR (Undisclosed)10 rec, 107 ydslow impactIR
Alex Wright · DL (Achilles)

Polymarket

Browns vs. Jaguars

bid: 21¢
ask: 23¢
24h vol: $44

Spread: Jaguars (-3.5)

bid: 64¢
ask: 68¢
24h vol: —

▲ +0.5% today

Spread: Jaguars (-4.5)

bid: 58¢
ask: 66¢
24h vol: —

▲ +2.5% today

Spread: Jaguars (-6.5)

bid: 56¢
ask: 59¢
24h vol: —

▼ +1.0% today

Spread: Jaguars (-7.5)

bid: 52¢
ask: 53¢
24h vol: $28

▲ +1.0% today

Spread: Jaguars (-10.5)

bid: 37¢
ask: 44¢
24h vol: —

▼ +0.5% today

where the real money sits

Bid-side order-book liquidity per outcome (top 5 levels). On-chain and verifiable — not a self-reported bets split.

Under$67,214
Jaguars$35,747
Over$28,496
Browns$25,840

order book

Over

bids

48¢$264

47¢$318

46¢$24

45¢$225

44¢$431

asks

51¢$653

52¢$136

53¢$934

54¢$1,339

recent trades · 60 captured

Parched-Formicariumsell Jaguars 77¢ × 1
Stained-Currentbuy Jaguars 79¢ × 4
Primary-Darknessbuy Jaguars 79¢ × 8
Loathsome-Valuebuy Jaguars 79¢ × 6
Clear-Cut-Watchmakerbuy Jaguars 79¢ × 12
Solid-Odometerbuy Jaguars 79¢ × 12
buy Jaguars 53¢ × 28
Attached-Peacockbuy Over 48¢ × 3
Belated-Gluebuy Under 50¢ × 7
Belated-Gluebuy Over 48¢ × 7
Trim-Humanbuy Under 52¢ × 91
Hefty-Denbuy Jaguars 79¢ × 1

Sharp wallets in this game

pro

0 graded-wallet positions · 0 wallets currently holding this game.

Who, which side, size, and whether the close says they're trustworthy — that's Pro. Unlock →

Similar past games

91 past games within ±1 spread and ±1.5 total, same roof, division games.

favourite ats: 40–48–3(45%)
over rate: 55%
avg margin: 9.3
avg total: 43.4

Show the 20 most recent matches

game	spread	total line	result	scored	cover	o/u
CLE @ NE 2025	+7	40.5	+19	45	fav	over
NYG @ DEN 2025	+7.5	39.5	+1	65	dog	over
NO @ SEA 2025	+7.5	41.5	+31	57

Head to head

JAX leads 10–818 meetings since 1999

2024-09-15CLE @ JAX18-13CLE won
2023-12-10JAX @ CLE27-31CLE won
2020-11-29CLE @ JAX27-25CLE won
2017-11-19JAX @ CLE19-7JAX won
2014-10-19CLE @ JAX6-24JAX won
2013-12-01JAX @ CLE32-28JAX won
2011-11-20JAX @ CLE10-14CLE won
2010-11-21CLE @ JAX20-24JAX won

← All games

Consensus edge

de-vigged median across the books — no model involved

moneyline

52 books · vig removed

Fair: Jaguars 76¢ / Browns 24¢ — best price: Browns at betfair_ex_uk +2.4% above fair.

fairworsebetterbetfair_ex_uk

spread · -8

18 books · vig removed

Fair: Jaguars 50¢ / Browns 50¢ — best price: Jaguars at lowvig +1.0% above fair.

fairworsebetter

total · 40.5

29 books · vig removed

Fair: Over 50¢ / Under 50¢ — no book beats fair right now.

fairworsebetter

Damarri Mathis · DB (Undisclosed)IR

Kendrick Green · C (Undisclosed)IR

Michael Coats · CB (Ankle)Questionable

Parker Brailsford · C (Hand)Questionable

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah · LB (Neck)PUP

Joe Royer · TE (Personal)PUP

JAX

Brian Thomas · WR (Shoulder)50 rec, 728 yds; 21 rush ydshigh impactQuestionable
LeQuint Allen · RB (Undisclosed)11 rec, 63 yds; 97 rush ydslow impactQuestionable
Zach Durfee · DE (Upper Body)IR
Patrick Mekari · OL (Back)IR
Parker Hughes · LB (Undisclosed)IR
Sam Mustipher · OL (Undisclosed)IR
Keivie Rose · DL (Undisclosed)IR
Jared Bartlett · LB (Leg)IR
Carter Bradley · QB (Thumb)IR
Garrett DiGiorgio · G (Undisclosed)IR
Wyatt Milum · OL (Undisclosed)Questionable
Jakobi Meyers · WR (Hand)Questionable

CLEseason form · league percentileJAX

6
off EPA/play
62
81
def EPA/play
88
0
success rate
62
34
pass over expected
88
9
explosive pass rate
72
19
explosive rush rate
56
28
sacks allowed/dropback
59

Raw numbers, last 5 vs season

form	last 5		season
	CLE	JAX	CLE	JAX
off EPA/play	-.196	.133	-.196	.033
def EPA/play	-.059	-.100	-.092	-.097
success rate	.364	.467	.340	.448
pass over expected	-.261	6.3	-3.9	1.8
explosive pass rate	.041	.073	.034	.053
explosive rush rate	.044	.068	.040	.050
sacks allowed/dropback	.103

PFF unit grades (pass block, pass rush, coverage, run defense…) are Pro. Unlock →

0 graded-wallet positions · 0 wallets currently holding this game.

Who, which side, size, and whether the close says they're trustworthy — that's Pro. Unlock →

latestSep 1 · -7.5

Median across books per capture, ~12-hourly book snapshots + 30-min line captures. Not live.

Browns vs. Jaguars

bid: 21¢
ask: 23¢
24h vol: $44

Spread: Jaguars (-3.5)

bid: 64¢
ask: 68¢
24h vol: —

▲ +0.5% today

Spread: Jaguars (-4.5)

bid: 58¢
ask: 66¢
24h vol: —

▲ +2.5% today

Spread: Jaguars (-6.5)

bid: 56¢
ask: 59¢
24h vol: —

▼ +1.0% today

Spread: Jaguars (-7.5)

bid: 52¢
ask: 53¢
24h vol: $28

▲ +1.0% today

Spread: Jaguars (-10.5)

bid: 37¢
ask: 44¢
24h vol: —

▼ +0.5% today

where the real money sits

Bid-side order-book liquidity per outcome (top 5 levels). On-chain and verifiable — not a self-reported bets split.

Under$67,214
Jaguars$35,747
Over$28,496
Browns$25,840

order book

Over

bids

48¢$264

47¢$318

46¢$24

45¢$225

44¢$431

asks

51¢$653

52¢$136

53¢$934

54¢$1,339

recent trades · 60 captured

Parched-Formicariumsell Jaguars 77¢ × 1
Stained-Currentbuy Jaguars 79¢ × 4
Primary-Darknessbuy Jaguars 79¢ × 8
Loathsome-Valuebuy Jaguars 79¢ × 6
Clear-Cut-Watchmakerbuy Jaguars 79¢ × 12
Solid-Odometerbuy Jaguars 79¢ × 12
buy Jaguars 53¢ × 28
Attached-Peacockbuy Over 48¢ × 3
Belated-Gluebuy Under 50¢ × 7
Belated-Gluebuy Over 48¢ × 7
Trim-Humanbuy Under 52¢ × 91
Hefty-Denbuy Jaguars 79¢ × 1

Under

bids

49¢$628

48¢$126

47¢$828

46¢$1,141

45¢$1,159

asks

52¢$286

53¢$358

54¢$28

55¢$275

56¢$549