Falcons @ Steelers · Week 1

2026 · Week 1 · Sep 13, 17:00 UTC · Acrisure Stadium

Falcons

8–9 · 9–8 ATS · 8–9 O/U('25)

Steelers

10–8 · 9–8 ATS · 10–8 O/U('25)

spread · PIT: -3
total: 42.5
fair ml: 60¢ home
books: 60
open: -3 / 42.5

on the key number 3

odds as of Sep 1, 09:43 UTC · polymarket Sep 1, 15:00 UTC · refreshes with each capture, not live

Odds across the books

book	Atlanta Falcons	Pittsburgh Steelers	updated
Pinnaclesharp ref	+150	-170	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
Bally Bet	+140	-175	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Bet Right	+140	-175	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
BetAnything	+140	-160	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Betclic (FR)	+135	-182	Sep 1, 09:41 UTC
BetOnline.ag	+140	-160	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
BetUS	+138	-160	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Bovada	+150	-175	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC
Everygame	+140	-160	Sep 1, 09:43 UTC
LowVig.ag	+140	-160	Sep 1, 09:42 UTC

Model says

proreleased to Pro 2h after the house trades (amendment A3, from Week 1); unlocks here at kickoff−15min

Checking the model…

Line movement

latestSep 1 · -3.0

Median across books per capture, ~12-hourly book snapshots + 30-min line captures. Not live.

Player props

consensus columns free · model columns above in Model says

player	line	over	under	books
Aaron Rodgers	1.5	+128	-162	3
Tua Tagovailoa	0.5	-224	+173	1

Matchup

EPA form free · PFF unit grades Pro

ATLseason form · league percentilePIT

31
off EPA/play
41
56
def EPA/play
41
53
success rate
41
12
pass over expected
69
50
explosive pass rate
31
59
explosive rush rate
47
78
sacks allowed/dropback
69

Raw numbers, last 5 vs season

form	last 5		season
	ATL	PIT	ATL	PIT
off EPA/play	-.044	-.051	-.027	-.012
def EPA/play	-.003	.011	-.009	.021
success rate	.404	.419	.436	.430
pass over expected	-9.6	-2.4	-6.3	-.746
explosive pass rate	.042	.037	.045	.042
explosive rush rate	.047	.058	.051	.046
sacks allowed/dropback	.039

PFF unit grades (pass block, pass rush, coverage, run defense…) are Pro. Unlock →

Weather

temperature: 28°C (feels 30°C)
wind: 8 km/h, gusts 12 · 144°
precipitation: 0 mm
humidity: 54%
cloud cover: 26%

source forecast

Missing players

ATL

Michael Penix · QB (Knee - ACL)70 rush yds; 1982 pass ydsmed impactQuestionable
Beaux Collins · WR (Undisclosed)2 rec, 25 ydslow impactIR
JD Bertrand · LB (Undisclosed)IR
Trey Sermon · RB (Undisclosed)IR

Polymarket

Falcons vs. Steelers

bid: 38¢
ask: 39¢
24h vol: $8

▲ +0.5% today

Spread: Steelers (-1.5)

bid: 57¢
ask: 59¢
24h vol: —

▲ +0.5% today

Spread: Steelers (-2.5)

bid: 54¢
ask: 57¢
24h vol: —

▼ +0.5% today

Spread: Steelers (-3.5)

bid: 46¢
ask: 47¢
24h vol: —

▲ +0.5% today

Spread: Steelers (-4.5)

bid: 42¢
ask: 45¢
24h vol: —

▲ +0.5% today

Falcons vs. Steelers: O/U 38.5

bid: 57¢
ask: 65¢
24h vol: —

▼ +0.5% today

where the real money sits

Bid-side order-book liquidity per outcome (top 5 levels). On-chain and verifiable — not a self-reported bets split.

Under$61,495
Over$49,624
Steelers$30,807
Falcons$29,824

order book

Falcons

bids

38¢$1,292

37¢$1,558

36¢$1,265

34¢$204

33¢$528

asks

39¢$165

40¢$1,491

41¢$1,412

42¢$1,260

recent trades · 8 captured

Shimmering-Musicbuy Steelers 63¢ × 8
Trusting-Tillbuy Steelers 63¢ × 16
Focused-Chiefbuy Steelers 62¢ × 16
Faraway-Quiverbuy Falcons 40¢ × 3
Cute-Pomegranatebuy Steelers 62¢ × 80
Fantastic-Hummussell Steelers 60¢ × 27
Fantastic-Hummusbuy Steelers 61¢ × 27
Agitated-Bricklayingbuy Falcons 41¢ × 101

Sharp wallets in this game

pro

0 graded-wallet positions · 0 wallets currently holding this game.

Who, which side, size, and whether the close says they're trustworthy — that's Pro. Unlock →

Similar past games

226 past games within ±1 spread and ±1.5 total, same roof, division games.

favourite ats: 105–106–15(50%)
over rate: 50%
avg margin: 3.3
avg total: 42.9

Show the 20 most recent matches

game	spread	total line	result	scored	cover	o/u
MIA @ PIT 2025	+3	42.5	+13	43	fav	over
HOU @ SEA 2025	+3	41.5	+8	46	fav	over
LV @ WAS 2025	+2.5	43.5	+17	65

Head to head

PIT leads 6–1 (1 tie)8 meetings since 1999

2024-09-08PIT @ ATL18-10PIT won
2022-12-04PIT @ ATL19-16PIT won
2018-10-07ATL @ PIT17-41PIT won
2014-12-14PIT @ ATL27-20PIT won
2010-09-12ATL @ PIT9-15PIT won
2006-10-22PIT @ ATL38-41ATL won
2002-11-10ATL @ PIT34-34tie
1999-10-25ATL @ PIT9-13PIT won

← All games

Consensus edge

de-vigged median across the books — no model involved

moneyline

53 books · vig removed

Fair: Steelers 60¢ / Falcons 40¢ — no book beats fair right now.

fairworsebetter

spread · -3

27 books · vig removed

Fair: Steelers 51¢ / Falcons 49¢ — no book beats fair right now.

fairworsebetter

total · 42.5

23 books · vig removed

Fair: Over 50¢ / Under 50¢ — no book beats fair right now.

fairworsebetter

Malik Verdon · DB (Undisclosed)

Jalon Walker · DL (Knee - ACL)IR

Darren Hall · CB (Undisclosed)IR

Da'Shawn Hand · DT (Leg)Questionable

Billy Bowman · DB (Achilles)Questionable

Tyrone Wheatley · OL (Undisclosed)Questionable

Gervon Dexter · DL (Hamstring)Questionable

Anterio Thompson · DT (Undisclosed)PUP

DeAngelo Malone · DL (Undisclosed)PUP

James Pearce · DL (Suspension)Sus

Storm Norton · T (Foot)PUP

PIT

Michael Pittman · WR (Leg)80 rec, 784 ydshigh impactQuestionable
Ben Skowronek · WR (Concussion)4 rec, 69 ydslow impactQuestionable
Logan Lee · DL (Undisclosed)IR
DeShon Elliott · DB (Undisclosed)IR
Cole Burgess · WR (Undisclosed)IR
Daequan Hardy · CB (Undisclosed)IR
Jack Driscoll · T (Undisclosed)IR
Brandin Echols · CB (Ankle)Questionable
Will Howard · QB (Head)Questionable
Jaquan Brisker · DB (Undisclosed)Questionable
Jalen Ramsey · CB (Knee)Questionable
DK Metcalf · WR (Undisclosed)Questionable
Donte Kent · CB (Undisclosed)PUP

ATLseason form · league percentilePIT

31
off EPA/play
41
56
def EPA/play
41
53
success rate
41
12
pass over expected
69
50
explosive pass rate
31
59
explosive rush rate
47
78
sacks allowed/dropback
69

Raw numbers, last 5 vs season

form	last 5		season
	ATL	PIT	ATL	PIT
off EPA/play	-.044	-.051	-.027	-.012
def EPA/play	-.003	.011	-.009	.021
success rate	.404	.419	.436	.430
pass over expected	-9.6	-2.4	-6.3	-.746
explosive pass rate	.042	.037	.045	.042
explosive rush rate	.047	.058	.051	.046
sacks allowed/dropback	.039

PFF unit grades (pass block, pass rush, coverage, run defense…) are Pro. Unlock →

0 graded-wallet positions · 0 wallets currently holding this game.

Who, which side, size, and whether the close says they're trustworthy — that's Pro. Unlock →

latestSep 1 · -3.0

Median across books per capture, ~12-hourly book snapshots + 30-min line captures. Not live.

Falcons vs. Steelers

bid: 38¢
ask: 39¢
24h vol: $8

▲ +0.5% today

Spread: Steelers (-1.5)

bid: 57¢
ask: 59¢
24h vol: —

▲ +0.5% today

Spread: Steelers (-2.5)

bid: 54¢
ask: 57¢
24h vol: —

▼ +0.5% today

Spread: Steelers (-3.5)

bid: 46¢
ask: 47¢
24h vol: —

▲ +0.5% today

Spread: Steelers (-4.5)

bid: 42¢
ask: 45¢
24h vol: —

▲ +0.5% today

Falcons vs. Steelers: O/U 38.5

bid: 57¢
ask: 65¢
24h vol: —

▼ +0.5% today

where the real money sits

Bid-side order-book liquidity per outcome (top 5 levels). On-chain and verifiable — not a self-reported bets split.

Under$61,495
Over$49,624
Steelers$30,807
Falcons$29,824

order book

Falcons

bids

38¢$1,292

37¢$1,558

36¢$1,265

34¢$204

33¢$528

asks

39¢$165

40¢$1,491

41¢$1,412

42¢$1,260

recent trades · 8 captured

Shimmering-Musicbuy Steelers 63¢ × 8
Trusting-Tillbuy Steelers 63¢ × 16
Focused-Chiefbuy Steelers 62¢ × 16
Faraway-Quiverbuy Falcons 40¢ × 3
Cute-Pomegranatebuy Steelers 62¢ × 80
Fantastic-Hummussell Steelers 60¢ × 27
Fantastic-Hummusbuy Steelers 61¢ × 27
Agitated-Bricklayingbuy Falcons 41¢ × 101

Steelers

bids

61¢$259

60¢$2,236

59¢$2,033

58¢$1,740

56¢$896

asks

62¢$2,108

63¢$2,652

64¢$2,250

66¢$396

67¢$1,072