# DexRay dexray.org ## What this is DexRay tracks NFL and NCAAF (college football) betting markets: cross-book sportsbook odds, de-vigged consensus closing lines (including a forward-collected NCAAF closing-line archive most public trackers do not keep), line movement from opening line to kickoff, and Polymarket on-chain wallets graded by closing-line value (CLV) against both the sportsbook close and the Polymarket close. DexRay also runs its own pre-registered NFL strategy, disclosed and graded in public under a fixed amendment (amendment A3, dated 2026-09-01), and publishes model signals starting Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season. Data is snapshotted on cadences from roughly 30 minutes (CFB closing lines, Polymarket wallet polling) to about 12 hours (NFL odds), not a live feed. ## The core idea: the close is the exam A market's closing price is the best estimate of the truth anyone had before the game, so the durable test of skill is whether a bettor consistently bought below it. Every metric on the site derives from that one idea. Full definitions live at /methodology; this file summarizes them. ## Two closes - Sportsbook close (q_book): for each bet's exact market and line, every sportsbook quote captured at close, vig removed proportionally, then the median across books. Requires a minimum number of books at that exact line (see /methodology for the current threshold) or the bet gets no q_book and is excluded from book-close CLV, though it still counts for the Polymarket-close comparison and for PnL. - Polymarket close (q_pm): the last traded price of the same outcome token at or before the official kickoff time — what most Polymarket leaderboard trackers measure against. - CLV: CLV_book = q_book / p - 1, and CLV_pm = q_pm / p - 1. Positive means the position was bought below where the market ended up. Averaged unweighted across positions priced between 5c and 95c (longshot prices are excluded from the average because de-vigged ratio CLV overstates their fair probability; they still count in PnL and volume). - Venue drift: CLV_pm - CLV_book. When Polymarket closes later or thinner than the sportsbooks, its close drifts toward the sportsbook price after the trade — a wallet can earn that drift by trading early on the venue, not by knowing more than the market. - Grading split: on-chain wallets on the Leaderboard are graded against both closes. The house's own signal ledger on /house is graded only against the sportsbook close, because a Polymarket-close comparison there would be measuring a market the house's own public signal had just moved. ## Inference Wallets and segments are tested with a one-sided bootstrap (2,000 resamples, fixed seed, minimum 30 graded bets) against the null that mean CLV_book is at or below zero, reduced to a readable 0-100 skill score. A verdict of "skill" requires p < 0.05 and at least 100 graded bets; "luck" is a non-positive mean or p > 0.5; everything else is reported as "unclear." Full definitions, including segment cuts (market, side, price band, timing) and the "bets to significance" statistic, are at /methodology. ## The screen For open Polymarket markets, EV = q_book / ask - 1 (fillable EV weights that by the USD available near the best ask) — the site treats the sportsbook consensus as truth and Polymarket as the side that can be wrong, which is the conservative direction of that assumption. Free visitors see the top screen dislocations; full screen access is a Pro feature. ## The house strategy and release timing (amendment A3) DexRay's own registered NFL strategy trades real money from Week 1 of the 2026 season, one signal ledger (priced at the best sportsbook quote at signal time, graded only against the sportsbook close) and a separate fills ledger for live execution. Release timing under A3: a Pro or API subscriber reads a released signal's full line 2 hours after the house trades it (capped at kickoff minus 6 hours); everyone — subscriber or not — sees the full line by kickoff minus 15 minutes at the latest. A seeded 20% of each week's signals is withheld from every subscriber, Pro and API included, until that same kickoff-minus-15-minute mark, so the gap between released and held-out signal performance gives an honest read of the site's own footprint on the numbers it publishes. The phase-1-to-2 gate and kill criteria are pre-registered and public on /house, including the holdout-based rule (amendment A3 section 4) that a validation claim requires positive CLV on the held-out signals with at least 300 of them, or the result is reported as "passed — self-impact suspected" with no stake escalation permitted. ## What DexRay is not DexRay takes no bets, executes no trades on anyone's behalf, and holds no customer funds or wallet keys — any wager or trade is placed directly with a third-party venue (a sportsbook, or Polymarket) under that venue's own terms. Nothing on the site is a recommendation to place any wager, and nothing here is investment, legal, or tax advice. Model signals for Pro and API subscribers are data with a disclosed release schedule and a public, pre-registered self-impact check, not picks framed as advice. Card payments run through Stripe and are in test mode as of this writing; do not attempt a real purchase on the live site until that changes. ## Pricing Free: every game's cross-book odds, consensus, and line movement, plus the Leaderboard and the top 3 screen dislocations. Pro ($29/mo or $199/yr): full model signals from Week 1 (unlocked at each line's own release time under amendment A3), PFF grades, sharp-wallet positions on every game, and the full screen. API ($49/mo): keyed REST access with 10,000 requests/day, includes Pro on the site. See /pricing for the current plan comparison. ## Key pages - / — NFL slate: every game, cross-book odds, consensus, line movement, weather, injuries, Polymarket flow. - /cfb — college football slate, same data shape as NFL. - /cfb/sharps — Polymarket sharp-wallet tracking for CFB markets. - /signals — the week's model signals, one table, ranked by EV. - /leaderboard — Polymarket NFL wallets ranked by CLV against the sportsbook close. - /screen — open Polymarket NFL markets priced below sportsbook consensus. - /house — the registered house strategy: gate, kill criteria, ledger, and the verbatim registration document. - /methodology — every definition above, in full, with worked formulas. - /docs/api — REST API reference; machine-readable spec at /api/v1/openapi.json. - /stats/players, /stats/injuries — player and injury data. - /pricing, /terms, /privacy, /impressum — plans and policies. ## Freshness Figures quoted anywhere on the site (win rates, signal counts, CLV numbers) are current as of that page's own "generated at" timestamp, not the date of this file. This file describes the product's structure and definitions, which change rarely; for current numbers, fetch the page.